Asian Development Outlook 2011: South-South Economic Links by Asian Development Bank

By Asian Development Bank

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Beyond the very short term, Japan’s economic prospects are less dire, assuming that the nuclear crisis at Fukushima is brought under control. Private consumption and production are now falling but capital-stock rebuilding, largely financed by the government, will exert a positive effect in the longer run. The one caveat to this optimistic longer-term view is Consumer confidence, Japan that the fiscal demands of post-earthquake reconstruction will impose new burdens at a time when net public debt is over 120% of GDP.

8% in the fourth quarter from the third. A sluggish labor market continues to weigh on private consumption. Unemployment is high and job offers remain well below precrisis levels. 12 Contributions to GDP growth, Japan mainly in manufacturing, before decelerating in the second, and GDP Private investment Private consumption Net exports with the labor market expected to improve only gradually, labor Public investment Residual Government consumption income is unlikely to make much headway in 2011.

Consumer confidence, Japan Jan 2005 = 100 110 90 70 50 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Feb 2006 07 08 09 10 11 Source: Economic and Social Research Institute. Cabinet Office, Government of Japan. jp (accessed 17 March 2011). Click here for figure data The earthquake will affect other key variables. For example, right after the disaster, the stock market plummeted while the yen rose to a post–Second World War high on expectations that Japanese firms would repatriate profits to bolster domestic balance sheets.

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